The Urban Condition with B-Town

Canada’s “New” New Government

Goodbye Emperor Harper, hello Prime Minister Japhilles LaDieppe of the Bloc Canadien.
It looks as though the current Parliament will change… not through another grinding and expensive election, but through an unprecedented constitutional crisis.
The makeup of Canada’s Minority Parliament has meant that if the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois work together they effectively have more seats than the two-term minority ruling Conservatives. The NDP and Liberals under the negotiation of former 1980s NDP leader Ed Broadbent and 1990s Lib PM Jean Chretien have brokered a 30 month agreement to become a coalition party. Their combined 114 (77 Lib 37 NDP) votes would be held up by the Blocs 49 votes. This will give the coalition association 163 votes to 143 Conservative and 2 conservative leaning independents.

What does this mean… in the short term?

A Governor General that Earns her Money:
The Governor General, Michelle Jean, as the official head of the Canadian State has little to do but get free flights, dinners, galas and read a throne speech written by someone else. It is only in these minority parliament situations that a Governor General as representative of the Queen of Canada must make actual decisions even legal precedents about the dissolution of parliament into a new election, which grouping of MPs will make up the next government, or whether or not to force a government to stand after a non confidence vote. This situation is seen by some as a constitutional crisis, but it will likely come to her siding with the Government towards this coalition. Since voters in Canada do NOT vote for a 'government' or a Prime Minister but for an MP, there is no constitutional crisis. This shift will actually present a precedent of Canadian Parliamentary democracy at work.
Another Election:
If the Conservatives’ arguments that a) their party by having the largest share of MPs in parliament is the only rightful governing body, or b) the inclusion of a openly separatist party as the governing body is not in the best interest of confederation, are successful, the Governor General may choose to call a general election. An election in this situation would likely happen in January and be blamed on the opposition. They would pay dearly in the election that would send a majority of Conservative MPs to Ottawa.
A Prorogue of Parliament:
If Stephen Harper decides to prorogue parliament, essentially shutting it down to a later date likely in January, it would be damaging to all sides. It would be the public that would most likely be hurt. While many are upset that the opposition parties are distracting from the economic crisis at hand by threatening this constitutional crisis, if Harper suspends a democratically necessary parliament at that time of crisis it could be politically disasterous for him. On the other hand, the suspension could buy him enough time too seed a feeling that this coalition business is an attempted bloodless coup and a waste of valuable time for the Canadian public.
A Dissolution Reversal:
The place where this coalition could blow up is mainly with the Liberals. While under Stephane Dion Canada’s Liberal Party has made a shift to the left and it was generally those liberals that were elected, some are vehemently opposed to the socialist policy of the NDP and even more opposed to the Bloc’s nationalist core. These right wing or extremely federalist Liberal members may find themselves disillusioned by this coalition. They might in the coming days, weeks, or months be compelled to break away from the Liberals as independents or even cross the floor and join the Conservative caucus. It would only take 9 of these floor crossings to bring parliament to a tie. An action of this type could bring us right back to where we were at October 14th.
The first parliament in 25 years that represents the majority of voters:
The vote tallies for the Bloc, NDP, and Liberals combined is effectively 55% of all counted. The last time a government broke the 50% popular vote mark (not counting the NDP propping up Martin’s Libs here and there in 2004) was Brian Mulroney’s 1984 pounding. It usually takes only 40% of the vote to give a party a commanding majority.
Prime Minister Dion:
The 30 month agreement is currently under the direction of Dion, who has been given the lowest mandate to govern by a Liberal leader since John Turner in 1988. This should have spelled political death for the man, but he has a few maneuvers left in him. Stephan was undermined and billed as a weak leader firstly by his language barrier, but by secondly his insistence that there be consensus within his party and between other parties. It is this second weakness that may have initiated this coalition and may be what keeps it together. He has officially resigned and will leave after a scheduled leadership convention in May, so the future Liberal leader may not share his sense of cooperation, but for now all of the potential candidates are in on it.

What does this mean… in the longer term?
A New Conservative Leader:
If this coalition is successful for more than a month the knives will be out for Harper within the Conservative caucus. Calls for resignation would follow, as many of the fissures concerning the takeover of the Progressive Conservatives by the Reform Party can be traced to Harper. He will go or the conservative alliance may be broken.
Crisis for Confederation or Quebec Nationalism:
The Bloc Quebecois is threatening to go federalist or at least soft on sovereignty with their renewable agreement to hold up the Canadian Federal Parliament for at least 18 months. To some on either side of the sovereignty debate this will be seen as a betrayal. Their inclusion might either introduce legislation further legitimizing a Nationalist agenda or may induce a more cooperative nature of Quebec politics within Canada. It might even reduce the sovereigntist attiudes of Quebecers through such inclusion. It is a risk that Gilles Duceppe has seemingly taken on by signing the shared agreement. If he is incorrect support could quickly bleed to the NDP, Liberals, or a more adamantly Quebec nationalist party.
A United Left:
This coalition could represents a new era in Canadian Parliamentary democracy where cooperation leads to action for the common good. An alternate long shot is that the coalition could lead to a new party in Canada that represents social democratic and progressive ideals within a big tent. It may need a charismatic figure to raise up the hopes and cooperative nature of Canadians in the coming tough times. It may be an Obama figure that comes out of the Liberal leadership convention or farther down the road, but that leader could broker cooperation between these left of centre voices into a future election. I don’t see that person yet, but they could be on the horizon.

Labels: Federal, Government, Parliament, Politics

posted by B-Town @ 1:32 a.m.